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Well below 2 °C: Mitigation strategies for avoiding dangerous to catastrophic climate changes

  1. Veerabhadran Ramanathanb,1
  1. aDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77845;
  2. bScripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093
  1. Edited by Susan Solomon, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, and approved August 11, 2017 (received for review November 9, 2016)

  1. Fig. 2.

    Probability density function of projected warming in 2100 for the baseline-default, baseline-fast, and Target-WB2C (CN2030 + SLCP2020 + CES1t) scenarios. The green and red color shading shows the 50–95% range of the projection for the Target-WB2C and baseline-fast scenarios due to uncertainty in climate sensitivity. The vertical dotted lines indicate the range of the three risk categories as defined in this study.

  2. Fig. 3.

    Model-simulated temperatures for the 20th century (observations are shown in magenta) and their projections into the 21st century under four different scenarios: baseline-fast (red line); Target-2C (CN2030 + SLCP2020) with CO2 mitigation starting at 2030 (CN2030), followed by decarbonization as in INDCs (blue solid line) [SLCPs are also mitigated starting from 2020 (SLCP2020)]; Target-WB2C (CN2030 + SLCP2020 + CES1t), which is the same as the blue solid line but also includes extraction of 1 trillion tons of CO2 starting from 2030 (green solid line); and Target-1.5C, which is the same as the blue solid line, except that decarbonization starts earlier at 2020 (CN2020 + SLCP2020) (blue dashed line). The vertical bars on the right show the uncertainty of projected warming at 2100 due to climate sensitivity uncertainty (10–90%) for the cases of Target-2C (CN2030 + SLCP2020, blue solid line) and Target-WB2C (CN2030 + SLCP2020 + CES1t, green solid line).

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