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Natural climate solutions

  1. Joseph Fargionea
  1. aThe Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA 22203;
  2. bDepartment of Biology, James Madison University, Harrisonburg, VA 22807;
  3. cWoods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA 02540;
  4. dDepartment of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210;
  5. eCary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY 12545;
  6. fTerraCarbon LLC, Charlottesville, VA 22903;
  7. gResources for the Future, Washington, DC 20036;
  8. hInstitute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, AB24 3UU, Scotland, United Kingdom;
  9. iCollege of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853-1901;
  10. jMinistry of Agriculture, Government of Brazil, Brasilia 70000, Brazil;
  11. kNatural Resource Ecology Laboratory & Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523-1499;
  12. lWorld Resources Institute, Washington, DC 20002;
  13. mCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, St. Lucia, QLD 4067, Australia;
  14. nDepartment of Forest Ecology and Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, SE-901 83 Ume?, Sweden;
  15. oDepartment of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108;
  16. pDepartment of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742;
  17. qDepartment of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611-8526;
  18. rWetlands International, 6700 AL Wageningen, The Netherlands;
  19. sGund Institute for the Environment, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405
  1. Contributed by William H. Schlesinger, September 5, 2017 (sent for review June 26, 2017; reviewed by Jason Funk and Will R. Turner)

  1. Fig. 2.

    Contribution of natural climate solutions (NCS) to stabilizing warming to below 2 °C. Historical anthropogenic CO2 emissions before 2016 (gray line) prelude either business-as-usual (representative concentration pathway, scenario 8.5, black line) or a net emissions trajectory needed for >66% likelihood of holding global warming to below 2 °C (green line). The green area shows cost-effective NCS (aggregate of 20 pathways), offering 37% of needed mitigation through 2030, 29% at year 2030, 20% through 2050, and 9% through 2100. This scenario assumes that NCS are ramped up linearly over the next decade to <2 °C levels indicated in Fig. 1 and held at that level (=10.4 PgCO2 y?1, not including other greenhouse gases). It is assumed that fossil fuel emissions are held level over the next decade then decline linearly to reach 7% of current levels by 2050.

Online Impact

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